We can’t be sure at this point either. But Patreon does not solve the coordination problem / snowdrift dilemma at all. It doesn’t even have the sort of mutual assurance of a threshold campaign.
We’ve gotten 90 patrons when it’s super hard to even find out that you can pledge, hard to find the place to pledge, and has not even been announced.
The premise here is that orders of magnitude more people will be into giving pennies and maybe a couple bucks as part of hundreds or thousands of patrons than are willing to unilaterally chip in a few bucks as one of the mere dozens of patrons to something on Patreon.
Put another way: I’m sure even that substantial portion of our current patrons would not have pledged to us if it were just a Patreon-style pledge. They’re pledging with the hope of being part of a much greater number of patrons than is normal today — and the fact that they’re only giving pennies until it reaches that higher level is part of this. I have many reasons to believe that when we simply make the site easier to navigate and pledge and announce our working system, we’ll get a lot more patrons too.
In short: I do not support moving to higher base. I support aiming for thousands of patrons. We won’t succeed at our mission if all we can do is get the same sorts of numbers that already happen on Patreon.
original match level and high ambitions
For reference, we started originally at 0.01¢ (hundredth of a cent) match level at moved up to the 0.1¢ level when we realized that initial start was just too ambitious and too hard for people to see as meaningful.
Our goal in the long term should be to see match levels reduced because we’re succeeding at getting tens of thousands or more patrons. The real ambitious dream goal is not to compete with the income levels seen at Patreon but to compete with the numbers for something like Netflix.